Ocean freight spot rates from Asia to North America began to ease in late June, following a surge earlier in the month driven by tariff-related cargo frontloading. Analysts report that the cooling trend reflects softening U.S.-bound demand and increased shipping capacity.
According to market data, rates per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU) from Asia to the U.S. West Coast fell by 7% to $5,593 during the week of June 25. Rates to the East Coast remained high, increasing 1% to $7,183, though Shanghai-to-New York lanes saw a notable 13% rate drop to $5,703.
The decrease in West Coast rates is attributed to a slowdown in demand following months of early importing, as many businesses rushed to move goods ahead of potential tariff changes. Industry observers say this frontloading has effectively pulled forward some of the traditional peak-season volumes.
Despite some fluctuations, industry forecasts predict spot rates may decline further in the coming months due to an imbalanced supply and demand environment. The impact of future legal decisions on tariff policies and regulatory actions—such as penalties targeting Chinese shipping—will likely influence rate stability and capacity planning in the second half of the year.
By July, much of the frontloaded cargo is expected to have reached U.S. ports. After that, a decline in shipping volumes is anticipated for August through October, with potential double-digit year-over-year decreases.
As the market enters this softer demand period, shippers are advised to closely monitor carrier responses, including possible service suspensions, smaller vessel deployments, and blank sailings, which may impact space availability and transit schedules.
