Trucking operators hoping for a rebound in 2025 are now facing continued challenges as shifting trade policies and sluggish demand force the industry to reset expectations once again.
The trucking sector, already weathering three years of weak freight volume, is grappling with the ripple effects of rapidly changing tariffs and uncertain trade conditions. These developments have created volatility in import patterns and factory orders, dulling hopes for a seasonal surge in shipping activity.
Industry analysts suggest that freight demand is likely to remain flat heading into what is typically the peak season for trucking—when retailers usually ramp up shipments for back-to-school and holiday inventory.
Shipping volumes continue to slide. The Cass Freight Index, which tracks overall shipment activity in the U.S., posted its 28th consecutive year-over-year decline in May, falling 4%. Many businesses had already stocked up ahead of expected tariff increases and are now working through that inventory, reducing the need for new shipments.
Inventory levels remain elevated across retail, manufacturing, and wholesale sectors. According to the Logistics Managers’ Index, inventory costs in May reached their highest point since late 2022, further evidence that goods are sitting in warehouses longer than expected.
Domestic manufacturing, a major source of freight volume for truckload carriers, is also showing signs of contraction. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index fell to 48.5 in May, indicating ongoing slowdown across key sectors such as auto parts, pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy products.
The freight rate environment remains weak. Contract rates averaged $2.36 per mile in May, down from the previous year, while spot market rates have dropped over 9% since January. Shippers continue to hold the upper hand in pricing negotiations, putting pressure on carriers to operate leaner.
Investment in new equipment is also slowing. North American orders for heavy-duty trucks reached just over 13,000 units in May, the second-lowest figure in two years. Although slightly higher than April’s historic low, this number still reflects a 45% year-over-year decline. Many carriers are pausing equipment purchases until freight volumes and rates show consistent signs of improvement.
As economic uncertainty and trade volatility persist, logistics leaders are closely monitoring conditions and revisiting their forecasts. For now, the recovery the trucking industry has been waiting for remains just out of reach.
