The outlook for Hong Kong’s airfreight market has softened recently, yet expectations remain high for a busy peak season.
In its latest quarterly report, the DHL Air Trade Index dropped by six points from the previous quarter, reaching 35.2. This drop includes an 8.7-point decline for imports and a 4.2-point decline for exports, following three consecutive quarters of growth that culminated at 41.2 in Q3.
DHL reported quarter-over-quarter declines across all global regions measured, including Asia Pacific, Europe, the Americas, and other regions. The most significant decline came from Europe, which fell from 46 points in the third quarter to 34 points in the fourth.
Despite the cooling sentiment, airfreight traders in Hong Kong remain cautiously optimistic for the traditional peak season, including Thanksgiving and Christmas. According to the survey, 20% of traders still hold a positive outlook, in line with the past two years, though negative sentiment has increased by 6%, with 31% of traders expecting weaker results this year. Electronic products and parts have faced the highest share of negative outlooks, with 37% of respondents citing challenges.
Traders with a positive outlook for the season cited steady consumer spending as a primary driver. Conversely, those with a negative view attributed it to weak demand (56%) in destination markets and high shipping costs (30%). Another 28% expressed concern over the broader economic downturn.
The survey results highlight mixed market perspectives: some foresee strong peak activity, while others believe early shipments may mitigate peak congestion. Earlier this month, Neil Wilson, editor at TAC Index, noted that companies have been pre-booking aircraft space, potentially smoothing demand spikes. This early planning could either stabilize rates or, if capacity tightens unexpectedly, lead to significant spot price increases.
While September saw an unexpected market dip, many analysts consider it a temporary pause before the seasonal peak.
