The U.S. administration is weighing whether to impose new punitive measures against Russia, with a decision expected in the coming weeks. Options under consideration include sweeping tariffs, major sanctions, or taking no additional action if peace negotiations fail to advance.
Officials signaled that the administration is approaching a critical point in determining whether to escalate economic pressure on Moscow or disengage from efforts to broker a settlement.
Meanwhile, new estimates from the Congressional Budget Office highlight the fiscal impact of tariff policy. According to the report, tariff collections in July reached $28 billion, up significantly from annual pre-policy levels of around $80 billion. The CBO projects that customs duties from new and existing tariffs could total approximately $200 billion in the current fiscal year, assuming no additional rate changes.
The report noted that if projections hold, tariffs could reduce the federal deficit by as much as $4 trillion over the next decade. However, analysts cautioned that the unprecedented scale of the tariffs introduces uncertainty, as trade diversion and shifts in consumer behavior may alter revenue flows.
The CBO emphasized that the U.S. has not implemented tariff increases of this magnitude in decades, making long-term economic effects difficult to predict. Businesses and consumers could respond in ways that either amplify or offset the anticipated fiscal gains.
