The global freight market is entering 2026 with an unusual seasonal shift, as earlier-than-normal Lunar New Year (LNY) factory shutdowns in China are changing how and when cargo is moving across the world.
Instead of the traditional late-January shipping rush, manufacturers and shippers are accelerating select outbound volumes earlier in the month—particularly via air—while overall demand remains subdued. This divergence is creating a split market, where air freight shows resilience while ocean freight struggles to regain momentum.
Ocean Freight: A Missing Seasonal Surge
Historically, the weeks leading up to Lunar New Year bring a sharp increase in ocean freight volumes as importers rush to ship before production halts. This year, that surge has largely failed to appear.
Manufacturers are closing facilities without the usual pressure to clear inventories, signaling a more cautious approach to production and purchasing. As a result, a key late-January volume driver has disappeared, leaving ocean carriers facing weaker demand and limited ability to push rates higher.
This shift reflects broader uncertainty among importers, many of whom are managing leaner inventories and avoiding overstocking amid softer consumer demand in key markets like the United States.
Air Freight: Earlier Lift, Narrower Window
Air freight has followed a different—but still restrained—path. Early January saw a noticeable rebound in global air cargo volumes, with demand rising sharply week over week as shippers moved time-sensitive and high-value goods ahead of earlier factory closures.
However, this increase is highly concentrated. Rather than a prolonged peak season, air cargo demand is being compressed into a shorter window, driven primarily by larger shippers with the ability to secure capacity early.
China–US air freight rates have edged higher since the start of the year, particularly on West Coast lanes, but pricing remains capped well below the extreme peaks seen in previous years. Underlying demand has not been strong enough to support a sustained rate surge.
Capacity Returns Faster Than Demand
Capacity dynamics are now the primary force shaping the air freight market. Freighter operators have begun restoring services that were scaled back after the year-end peak, leading to a rapid increase in available aircraft capacity during early January.
While global air cargo capacity remains slightly below late-December highs, the pace of capacity reactivation is outstripping demand growth. This imbalance is easing upward pressure on rates, even as volumes recover modestly.
At the same time, capacity is not being absorbed evenly across the market.
A “Big Shipper Advantage” Emerges
Large-scale shippers—particularly major ecommerce platforms and high-volume manufacturers—are securing a disproportionate share of available air capacity. This has created a competitive environment where smaller shippers may face tighter access to space, despite improving overall capacity levels.
Compressed manufacturing timelines ahead of early closures are further concentrating shipments into narrower timeframes, contributing to congestion at key global air cargo hubs without significantly increasing total throughput.
What This Means for Shippers
As the market moves deeper into the first quarter, ocean freight conditions are expected to remain soft, with limited pricing power until demand fundamentals improve. Air freight, while firmer, is being supported mainly by early, high-value shipments rather than broad-based growth.
This early-2026 reset reflects seasonal adjustment rather than a structural slowdown, but it underscores how quickly supply chain behavior can shift in response to demand uncertainty, production planning, and capacity availability.
For shippers, flexibility and early planning will remain critical—especially for time-sensitive cargo—as capacity and demand continue to realign in the weeks following Lunar New Year.
