There are emerging signs that e-commerce shipments to the U.S. are gradually shifting from air cargo to ocean freight, and potential regulatory changes could accelerate this trend.
A recent industry webinar analyzing global freight trends highlighted how potential policy adjustments may impact e-commerce airfreight, particularly regarding de minimis exemptions. Currently, shipments valued below $800 are exempt from customs duties and reporting requirements, but new regulations could alter this framework.
During the discussion, experts pointed out that some exporters and e-commerce importers are already transitioning toward ocean freight to build inventory in anticipation of possible regulatory shifts. If sudden changes to de minimis rules occur, the air cargo sector could experience significant disruptions.
One possible shift includes increased shipments via alternative routes, such as through Mexico, which may reduce direct reliance on air transport. These early adjustments indicate that an industry-wide transition from air cargo to seafreight may already be in progress.
If de minimis thresholds are substantially lowered or eliminated, the migration to ocean freight could accelerate even further. However, e-commerce shipments are already facing mounting challenges in both the U.S. and Europe, with regulatory bodies considering changes to existing import duty exemptions. The European Commission, for instance, has announced plans to remove the customs duty exemption for goods valued up to €150.
Despite these developments, industry professionals suggest that the transition to ocean freight will be gradual rather than immediate. While air cargo rates might experience some fluctuations, the market is expected to adapt over time. Air freight remains a dynamic sector that responds quickly to shifts in supply and demand, meaning any regulatory impact on low-value imports may have only a modest influence on overall pricing.
There is also growing discussion about the potential introduction of broad-based tariffs. Trade professionals have noted that proposals for new import duties include across-the-board tariffs on all incoming goods, as well as significantly higher rates for products from specific countries. If implemented under existing economic regulations, such measures could be introduced swiftly, without lengthy approval processes.
While these potential changes are likely to impact ocean freight more than air cargo due to the lead time required for preparation, there could still be an uptick in air shipments in the short term—especially if businesses rush to import goods before new tariffs take effect.
As discussions around de minimis exemptions and tariffs continue, businesses involved in cross-border e-commerce will need to remain agile in adjusting their logistics strategies to navigate evolving trade policies.
