Trans-Pacific container rates are showing signs of resilience this September, supported by both carrier actions and cautious optimism around ongoing trade discussions between the United States and China.
Average spot rates from China to the U.S. West Coast climbed 7% to $2,309 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU) as of Sept. 16, according to data from Freightos. That marks a 34% increase since late August. Rates to the U.S. East Coast also gained, rising 4% to $3,368 per FEU and up 24% so far this month.
Industry analysts point to a combination of factors behind the gains, including general rate increases implemented by carriers, blanked sailings to control capacity, and seasonal demand linked to China’s Golden Week holiday. The extension of a 30% tariff on Chinese imports through November is also thought to have influenced shipper behavior, though its effect has been muted compared with earlier frontloading cycles.
Despite recent improvements, long-term forecasts remain cautious. The National Retail Federation projects second-half U.S. imports will be down 10% compared with last year, with October expected to fall 13% and November–December dropping 20%. Some of this weakness reflects earlier surges in volumes ahead of tariff deadlines in the spring and summer.
Carriers continue to hedge against additional costs as U.S. port fees on China-linked shipping are slated to take effect Oct. 14. In response, operators are shifting tonnage away from high-risk exposure. Ocean Network Express (ONE), for example, is redeploying 10 Chinese-built vessels to alternative services, including an Asia–Mediterranean loop and a Middle East–U.S. trade lane.
For now, the balance of carrier discipline, shipper demand, and geopolitical negotiations will determine whether the current uptick in spot rates marks the start of sustained recovery—or a temporary reprieve in an otherwise turbulent year for global container markets.
