TEU volumes projected to slide 3.4% in 2025 despite strong summer peak
U.S. retailers are warning of a slowdown in import cargo volumes through the remainder of 2025, as rising tariffs and persistent trade policy uncertainty cut into demand and complicate supply chain planning.
According to the National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker, U.S. container ports handled 2.36 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in July — up 20.1% from June, as companies rushed to bring in goods ahead of tariff deadlines. The figure was also 1.8% higher year-over-year, marking the second-busiest month since May 2022’s record 2.4 million TEUs.
The surge reflected widespread frontloading ahead of new reciprocal tariffs. Many key trading partners are now facing tariff rates well above the earlier 10% baseline, with additional sector-specific duties spreading across categories. Retailers say the scramble to stock up has provided only temporary relief.
“Retailers have stocked up as much as they can ahead of tariff increases, but the uncertainty of U.S. trade policy is making it impossible to make the long-term plans that are critical to future business success,” the NRF said. The group warned that higher costs throughout the supply chain will ultimately be passed to American consumers.
Legal and Political Backdrop
A federal appeals court in August ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant authority to impose tariffs. While the ruling struck at the legal basis for many of President Donald Trump’s measures, the tariffs remain in effect pending a likely Supreme Court review.
Meanwhile, tariff deadlines continue to shift. The White House extended by 90 days — to November 10 — the deadline for higher duties on Chinese goods, leaving importers in limbo. India, however, was hit with a new 25% tariff, taking its overall rate to 50%.
Forecasts Show Steep Drop-Off
The NRF forecasts import declines across the remainder of 2025:
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August: 2.28 million TEUs (–1.7% y/y)
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September: 2.12 million TEUs (–6.8% y/y)
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October: 1.95 million TEUs (–13.2% y/y)
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November: 1.74 million TEUs (–19.7% y/y)
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December: 1.7 million TEUs (–20.1% y/y), the weakest since March 2023
Year-to-date volumes reached 12.53 million TEUs through June, up 3.6% y/y. However, projected full-year imports of 24.7 million TEUs would represent a 3.4% decline from 2024.
The group also noted that last year’s labor unrest on the East Coast, which spurred heavy frontloading, has distorted normal seasonal patterns.
Looking Ahead to 2026
The NRF projects January 2026 imports at 1.8 million TEUs, down 19.1% y/y, underscoring how the combination of early peaks, tariff hikes, and shifting sourcing strategies could keep volumes muted into next year.
For now, the message from retailers is clear: tariffs are raising costs, disrupting planning cycles, and weighing on trade flows at a time when consumer demand is already fragile.
