A sharp downward revision in global and U.S. economic growth forecasts is fueling a grim outlook for container shipping, particularly across the trans-Pacific trade route. Analysts are now warning that a combination of trade restrictions and economic headwinds may drive the steepest contraction in container volumes since the pandemic.
Recent updates from global financial institutions have cut projections for U.S. and global GDP growth for 2025. These slower economic expectations, combined with tariff-related disruptions and shipping surcharges, are pressuring trade volumes and destabilizing long-term planning across the logistics sector.
Industry analysts are now forecasting a 1% year-over-year decline in global container throughput—marking only the third time since the late 1970s that container volume has contracted annually. That’s a sharp reversal from the previous month’s projection of over 2% growth.
The most significant impact is expected in eastbound Asia–North America traffic, where container volume is now projected to decline by over 7%, compared to earlier forecasts of modest growth. While major Asian economies will also experience reduced throughput, their recovery is expected to be quicker due to their ability to diversify trade relationships and explore new markets.
The uncertainty is further amplified by the unpredictable nature of ongoing policy shifts, which have introduced new fees and surcharges on certain trade lanes. These include penalties on foreign-built tonnage and additional tariffs across a broad range of imports and exports, which are already weighing heavily on decision-making in the shipping sector.
Analysts note that without a stable or clearly articulated long-term policy framework, forecasting becomes increasingly speculative. As a result, many in the logistics sector describe current market predictions as volatile and subject to sudden change.
Industry data indicates a dramatic spike in blank sailings—canceled voyages—as carriers attempt to align supply with falling demand. Recent figures show over 80 canceled sailings in a single month on the trans-Pacific route, significantly exceeding numbers seen during the peak of the COVID-19 supply chain crisis.
The short-term outlook suggests that a double-digit decline in annual trans-Pacific volumes is highly probable for 2025. While lower demand would typically lead to rate reductions, analysts warn that sudden shifts in vessel deployment could paradoxically drive rates higher due to dislocations in service schedules and port congestion.
As trade policies remain fluid and markets adapt to elevated costs, logistics providers, importers, and exporters are all bracing for a turbulent year—marked by volume volatility, shifting rate structures, and ongoing supply chain recalibration.
